When reading chapter 4, the part of the chapter that talked
about probability errors really stood out to me. It stood out to me because I feel like
probability is one of the many things that will influence our lives. Especially when it comes to making a decision
like an important one. In the Boss text, it said that probability error is the
misunderstanding of the probability or chances of an event by a huge
margin. It is even said that humans are
notoriously poor at determining probability.
We tend to believe that coincidences must have paranormal causes when
actually they are consistent with probability. One of the most insidious forms
of probability error is gambler’s error.
Gambler’s error is the belief that a previous event affects the
probability in a random event. There is even research that suggests that
gambling addiction is based on a cognitive error regarding probability.
I would have to agree with you that probability errors occur all the time. It happens all the time; I even know some times when I fall into a probability error. For example, there was a time when I was thinking of a friend I haven’t seen in a while then I drive down the street to grab a sandwich and I see that friend. At times I feel like it was meant to be or my imagination turns to be true. Even though I probably thought of him more in the past while going to a food place and never seen him, this time when I did see him I forgot those memories happened.
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